MBW - 3/28/2022
Good morning friends. Happy Monday to you all. A new week awaits. Let’s get to it.
News Briefing
•JK Rowling has faced some controversy in the past for her stance on transexuals and this was picked up by Vladimir Putin of all people as typical example on how cancel culture is trying to cancel everything that it doesn’t like. "JK Rowling was cancelled because she, a writer of books that have sold millions of copies around the world, didn't please fans of so-called gender freedoms," Mr Putin claimed. "Critiques of Western cancel culture are possibly not best made by those currently slaughtering civilians for the crime of resistance, or who jail and poison their critics," JK Rowling responded on Twitter. More on this here.
•Circa 10 days ago it seemed like a peace deal was about to be reached, but now many are thinking that maybe the US is not really pushing for it and that a regime change in Russia is the real outcome the Americans are looking for. And then, on Saturday, during a fiery speech in Poland, Biden said of Putin: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”
This prompted the Kremlin spokesman to say that “It’s not up to the president of the U.S. and not up to the Americans to decide who will remain in power in Russia.” The State Department has been scrambling since to clarify that what he meant was that Putin should stop having this destabilizing power over the region. But if you don’t know what a Kinsley gaffe is, here’s the definiton:
Now, there are many people out there who believe that wanting to overthrow Putin who started a war in order to overthrow another Government, is not politically immoral. True as that maybe, one might make a point that the wider implications of this war (use of nuclear, chemical, biological weapons, worldwide food shortages etc.) would mean that a more cautious approach would be a better way.
•Biden wants to include in the 2023 budget a minimum 20% tax for everyone making more than $100 million. The majority of new revenue raised by the tax would come from billionaires. White House officials estimate the tax would raise roughly $360 billion in new revenue over the next 10 years if enacted. The measure would mean taxation of unrealized gains from stocks which has always been a very tricky proposal. Good luck getting it through Congress with all the millionaire stock traders of the bunch.
•Most people I know don’t follow the Oscars any more but apparently the one from yesterday was worth watching, if only for the moment when Will Smith slapped Chris Rock after he made a joke for his wife. Here’s the full uncensored version:
War Analysis: The Most Probable Outcome
A month into the war and Putin is looking for a way to declare victory and freeze the conflict. The way they are defining victory now is taking all of Donbas including a full land bridge to Crimea and potentially some of the south of Ukraine. In addition they would consider the demilitarization of Ukraine as achieved by the bombing of their military-industrial infrastructure and the denazification by the elimination of the Azov battalion (a neo-Nazi former paramilitary group now a unit of the National Guard of Ukraine) fighting in Mariupol. There is some evidence that Russia wants to proclaim victory by May 9, WW2 victory day holiday.
The war will not end, but will evolve into a semi-frozen conflict not unlike we have seen in many regions bordering Russia. Major military offensives will likely conclude soon, but the trench warfare with limited but regular engagements can go on for many years.
The West will likely try to quickly rebuild Ukraine’s military capability with a lot of weapons and the sanctions will continue to destroy the Russian economy. Therefore, strategically it will still be a huge loss for Putin, even if he does try to present it as a victory. (Credit to: Dmitri Aplerovitch)
The Myth That Most Americans Hate Their Job
There is this ongoing rhetoric in mainstream media and online forums (read Reddit Antiwork) that nobody wants to work. But how true is it? Let’s take a deeper look. If you cut through the vibes, three distinct narratives emerge:
a. Americans don’t want to work anymore.
b. Most Americans hate their job, and the pandemic made them really hate their job.
c. The Great Resignation is a reflection of that job hatred.
Let’s take them one by one. No one wants to work anymore? Well, the unemployment rate is under 4 percent. More than 80 percent of prime-age workers are employed or looking for work. The labor-force-participation rate for workers ages 25 to 54 is now higher than it was for most of the Obama administration. These facts don’t describe a country where “no one” wants to work. They describe a country where almost everybody wants to work.
On the second point: The General Social Survey has been asking Americans about their working life since 2002. Every year of the survey, more than 80 percent of respondents have said that they’re “very” or “moderately” satisfied with their job. From 2018 to 2021—after an economic crisis, mass layoffs, and a surge in unemployment—the share of very or moderately satisfied workers fell from about 88 percent to … about 84 percent.
On the third point: The Great Resignation isn’t a dramatic shift in worker sentiment. It’s a dramatic shift in worker opportunity. The Great Resignation isn’t really about quitting jobs; it’s about switching jobs. In 2021, the accommodations-and-food-services sector (think hotels and restaurants) experienced more quits than any other part of the economy. But rather than losing workers, this sector led all categories in job growth by adding 2 million employees. We probably shouldn’t even call it the Great Resignation. It’s more like the Great Job Switcheroo. (Source: The Atlantic)
Rising Interest Rates and American Homeowners
Though interest rates are rising, most American households have already locked in a fixed mortgage payment. In 2005, 2 out of 5 mortgages had adjustable rates, while currently it is less than 1 in 100.
The expectations that inflation would not come back pushed many bond holders to accept negative real yields, therefore offering a once in a lifetime opportunity for homeowners.
Pics, vids & memes
Since the war feels so close to home these days:
Every damn time:
VPNs in Russia are having a field day:
Enjoying a good coffee:
Conflict escalator, I need to bookmark this:
That was it for today folks. Have a great start in the new week. See you tomorrow.