Good morning friends. Happy Friday to you all. Here is all you need to know before you get down to work:
Ukraine is turning into ruins. The level of destruction from Russian bombs is palpable. See below:
The worst event of the past 24 hours was the bombing of a building next to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Ukrainian emergency service say that the situation is under control and the station is at no risk of catching fire. In the early hours of the morning the Russians seized the power plant.
On other news, an Estonian-owned cargo ship sank off the coast of Ukraine. They reported an explosion but no information on what might have caused it was given (I might have an idea).
In Mariupol, a southern port near Ukraine's border with Russia, civilians are trapped by intense shelling. If Russia captures more southern cities, Ukrainian forces could be cut off from the sea.
Another round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations took place in Belarus. They agreed on creating secure corridors for safe passage of aid and refugees.
According to the BBC there are five ways this war can go, and none is ideal:
a. Short war
Russia ramps up its military operations with devastating attacks. Thousands die, Kyiv falls, Ukraine's president is killed or flees, and Russia installs a pro-Moscow puppet regime. This would be an unstable outcome, vulnerable to insurgency and future conflict.
b. Long war
Perhaps more likely. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, with low morale and poor logistics. They may struggle to control even captured cities. Over time, Ukraine's forces become an effective insurgency, while the West continues to supply weapons. Perhaps after many years, Russia eventually leaves.
c. European war
Putin could send troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Or there could just be miscalculation and escalation. Putin might take a risk if he felt it was the only way to save his leadership - if he faced defeat, he might be tempted to escalate further.
d. Diplomatic solution
By already agreeing to talks - even if they haven't made much progress - Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. If the war goes badly for him, Putin may judge that continuing is a greater leadership threat than the humiliation of ending it.
e. Putin ousted
It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days. If the war is disastrous for Russia, there may be the threat of popular revolution. And if those who have benefited from Putin no longer think he can defend their interests, such an outcome may not be implausible.
In the meantime, Elon Musk gave some suggestions on how to operate the Starlink terminals in Ukraine:
(continued) Why did Putin mess up?
Reason 3: He made the classical mistake of underestimating a previously defeated adversary. Putin was expecting zero resistance from the Ukrainian army. He had good motives to believe so. In 2014 his regulars easily destroyed the Ukrainian forces while inflicting pain and humiliation. But Putin didn’t finish Ukraine back then as he thought he would always have a chance. Historically speaking, inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky. Yes they became weaker, but the balance of power within them changed. Court politics favoring interest groups lost efficiency and upstarts got a chance. Formula of institutional evolution = scare + don’t finish them. Napoleon’s army smashed the Prussians at Jena, but didn’t finish them. They evolved and ended up causing Napoleon his final loss at Waterloo.
Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First they admitted the truth: “I’ll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of five thousand capable soldiers max out of 125k on paper” reported the Ukrainian Minister of Defense in 2014. And then things started to change.
During this time Ukraine has had six drafts. 60k soldiers were sent to Donbass and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400k+ war veterans. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war. Furthermore, the combat they have seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to fighting only when they have total superiority. Ukrainian soldiers have fought only against far stronger and better equipped enemy. (End. Credit to Kamil Galeev).
People seem to think that Europe depends on Russia for energy because it lacks its own, but 15 years ago Europe exported more natural gas than Russia does today. Now Russia exports three times more gas than Europe produces. See below:
So what happened? Climate activists, partly funded by Russia, blocked fracking. It sounds insane but you can read more about it here. I remember back in the day they used to say frackers are worse than pedophiles.
To be clear, I am not pro-fracking or anti green energy. I am pro common sense, anti dogma and above all anti human suffering.
Let’s talk a bit about a recent book I read which is full of valuable lessons regarding one’s relationship with money. The author’s name is Morgan Hausel and the book is titled Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. Each chapter is filled with stories about why we do silly things with money. They're funny, thought provoking, and told in the pure, minimalist style that Housel has helped to pioneer in financial literature. Bottom line, you learn a lot from this book.
Recently the author was on Tim Ferriss’ podcast for a three hour interview which you can listen to here. But if you don’t have the time, here’s an interesting snippet:
And lastly, the usual pics and memes from around the internet.
Seems legit.
Save yourself some effort. Put this up as a timeless profile pic.
This is the famous Wellbeing of the Thanksgiving Turkey chart. Everything seems to be going fine until it isn’t. Deeper than it looks.
Been there. Still am tbh.
Crocs are the best.
That was it for this week folks. Have great weekend to all of you. Peace.